BjornLomborg_为全球问题订定先后次序【中英文对照】

1.What I’d like to talk about is really the biggest problems in the world.
我今天想和大家谈的都是地球上最严重的问题。
2.I’m not going to talk about “The Skeptical Environmentalist” — probably that’s also a good choice.
我不会谈到《持怀疑论的环保分子》这本书 虽然那未尝不是一个好选择。
3.(Laughter) But I am going talk about, what are the big problems in the world?
（笑声） 我要说的， 是地球上最严重的问题是什么？
4.And I must say, before I go on, I should ask every one of you to try and get out pen and paper because I’m actually going to ask you to help me to look at how we do that.
在我继续之前，我想请在座每一位朋友， 拿出纸和笔， 因为我将会请大家和我一起试试，看我们是怎样找出答案的。
5.So get out your pen and paper.
所以请你拿出纸和笔。
6.Bottom line is, there is a lot of problems out there in the world.
我们的底线，是我们这个世界有很多问题。
7.I’m just going to list some of them.
让我列举其中一些：
8.There are 800 million people starving.
全球有八亿人处于饥饿之中；
9.There’s a billion people without clean drinking water.
有十亿人没有清洁食水；
10.Two billion people without sanitation.
二十亿人没有基本卫生设施；
11.There are several million people dying of HIV and AIDS.
几百万人死于爱滋病毒及爱滋病；
12.The lists go on and on.
这个清单可以一直数下去，
13.There’s two billions of people who will be severely affected by climate change — so on.
二十亿人会受到气候改变的严重影响 — 等等， 等等。
14.There are many, many problems out there.
这个世界有很多很多的问题。
15.In an ideal world, we would solve them all, but we don’t.
在一个完美的世界， 我们会解决所有的问题，可是实际上我们不会，
16.We don’t actually solve all problems.
在现实世界，我们不会解决所有的问题。
17.And if we do not, the question I think we need to ask ourselves — and that’s why it’s on the economy session — is to say, if we don’t do all things, we really have to start asking ourselves,
既然我们不会解决所有的问题，那我们便要问问自己 — 这就是为什么这场演讲被安排在经济时段– 既然我们不会应付全部问题，我们就应该开始问自己，
18.which ones should we solve first?
我们应该先解决那些问题?
19.And that’s the question I’d like to ask you.
这就是今天我要问大家的问题。
20.If we had say, 50 billion dollars over the next four years to spend to do good in this world, where should we spend it?
设想如果我们有五百亿元，可以在未来四年， 用来为世界做点事，我们应该把钱花在哪儿？
21.We identified 10 of the biggest challenges in the world, and I will just briefly read them.
我们找出地球面临的十项最大挑战， 让我很快的念出来。
22.Climate change, communicable diseases, conflicts, education, financial instability, governance and corruption, malnutrition and hunger, population migration,
气候变化，传染病，冲突， 教育， 金融波动，政府管治，贪污 营养不良及饥荒，人口迁移，
23.sanitation and water, and subsidies and trade barriers.
卫生及水源，经济资助及贸易壁壘。
24.We believe that these in many ways encompass the biggest problems in the world.
我们相信在很大程度上， 它们涵盖了世界最严重的问题。
25.The obvious question would be to ask, what do you think are the biggest things?
很明显，我们要问的问题是 哪些才是这些问题当中最重要的？
26.Where should we start on solving these problems?
我们该从哪个问题着手解决呢？
27.But that’s a wrong problem to ask.
不过，这个问题其实问得不对，
28.That was actually the problem that was asked in Davos in January.
今年一月在瑞士达沃斯， 有人就确实提出过这个问题。
29.But of course, there’s a problem in asking people to focus on problems.
当然， 把注意力集中在问题上，本身就是一个问题，
30.Because we can’t solve problems.
因为总有我们解决不了的问题。
31.Surely the biggest problem we have in the world is that we all die.
我们都知道这个世界面对的最大问题就是我们都会死，
32.But we don’t have a technology to solve that, right?
还没有一种科技可以解决这个问题，对不对？
33.So the point is not to prioritize problems, but the point is to prioritize solutions to problems.
所以最重要的，不是为问题订出先后次序， 而是为解决方法订出先后次序。
34.And that would be — of course that gets a little more complicated.
那就是说 — 当然真正的情况没有那么简单，
35.To climate change that would be like Kyoto.
气候变化的解决方法可能是京都协议，
36.To communicable diseases, it might be health clinics or mosquito nets.
传染病的解决方法可能是医疗诊所和蚊帐，
37.To conflicts, it would be U.N.’s peacekeeping forces, and so on.
冲突的解决方法可能是联合国维持和平部队等等。
38.The point that I would like to ask you to try to do, is just in 30 seconds — and I know this is in a sense an impossible task — write down what you think
我想大家一起尝试做的是， 请你在三十秒之内 – 我知道这几乎是 不可能的 – 写出你认为
39.is probably some of the top priorities.
应该最优先着手的项目。
40.And also — and that’s, of course, where economics gets evil — to put down what are the things we should not do, first.
还有 — 这就是为什么经济考虑教人那么为难 — 请你也写出哪些项目无须即时处理，
41.What should be at the bottom of the list?
请你也写出哪些项目无须即时处理，
42.Please, just take 30 seconds, perhaps talk to your neighbor, and just figure out what should be the top priorities and the bottom priorities of the solutions that we have
应该放到清单的最后。€ 请你试试，在三十秒之内，你可以和旁边的人商量， 想想哪些解决方法应该最优先进行，
43.to the world’s biggest issues.
用来解决世界上最严重的问题。
44.The amazing part of this process — and of course, I mean, I would love to — I only have 18 minutes, I’ve already given you quite a substantial amount of my time, right?
这个过程最美妙的地方是 – 当然我很想 多给大家时间 – 但我只有十八分钟， 我已经给了大家相当多的时间，对不对？
45.I’d love to go into, and get you to think about this process, and that’s actually what we did.
我想引导大家经历这个过程，思想这个过程， 因为那是我们实际上经过的过程。
46.And I also strongly encourage you, and I’m sure we’ll also have these discussions afterwards, to think about, how do we actually prioritize?
我很想大家认真地想想， 当然以后我们还要加以讨论， 我们的缓急先后次序，实际上是怎样订出来的呢？
47.Of course, you have to ask yourself, why on earth was such a list never done before?
当然，你要问问自己， 为什么这个次序从来没有人订出来？
48.And one reason is that prioritization is incredibly uncomfortable.
原因之一是这个次序会使人感到极度不快，
49.Nobody wants to do this.
没有人想这样做。
50.Of course, every organization would love to be on the top of such a list.
很明显，每个组织都想成为清单上的优先项目，
51.But every organization would also hate to be not on the top of the list.
都不想排在清单的后面。
52.And since there are many more not-number-one spots on the list than there is number ones, it makes perfect sense not to want to do such a list.
正因为清单上的非首要项目， 远远比首要项目多，理所当然地 没有人想订定这张清单。
53.We’ve had the U.N. for  almost 60 years, yet we’ve never actually made a fundamental list of all the big things that we can do in the world,
联合国成立了差不多六十年， 但我们从没有确实地订出一张基本的选单， 列出我们可以为世界做的所有重要事情，
54.and said, which of them should we do first?
哪些我们应该优先处理？
55.So it doesn’t mean that we are not prioritizing — any decision is a prioritization, so of course we are still prioritizing if only implicitly — and that’s unlikely to be as good
这不是说我们没有决定先后次序 — 任何决定都包含了先后次序， 所以我们仍然是决定了， 只是没有说出来 – 但这却很可能
56.as if we actually did the prioritization, and went in and talked about it.
没有真正订出先后次序， 认认真真的说出来那么好。
57.So what I’m proposing is really to say that we have, for a very long time, had a situation when we’ve had a menu of choices.
所以我现在要建议的， 是我们长久以来，已经有一张清单供我们选择。
58.There are many, many things we can do out there, but we’ve not had the prices, nor the sizes.
我们可以为地球做很多很多事情， but we’ve not had the prices, nor the sizes.
59.We have not had an idea.
没有作出决定的依据。
60.Imagine going into a restaurant and getting this big menu card, but you have no idea what the price is.
设想我们走进一所餐厅，拿着一张大大的菜单， 却不知道价格。
61.You know, you have a pizza, you’ve no idea what the price is.
你想要一客薄饼，却不知道售价。
62.It could be at one dollar, it could be 1,000 dollars.
那可能是一块钱，也可能是一千块，
63.It could be a family-size pizza.
可能是一个家庭的分量，
64.It could be a very individual-size pizza, right?
也可能只够一个人吃。
65.We’d like to know these things.
我们需要知道这些事情，
66.And that is what the Copenhagen Consensus is really trying to do — to try to put prices on these issues.
这就是“哥本哈根共识”想做的， 就是为全球性问题订出价格。
67.And so basically, this has been the Copenhagen Consensus’ process.
简单来说，以下就是达至“哥本哈根共识”的过程。
68.We got 30 of the world’s best economists, three in each area.
我们找来三十位世界最出色的经济学家，每一个范畴三位。
69.So we have three of world’s top economists write about climate change.
这就是说，三位世界最佳经济学家，为我们就气候变化提供建议：
70.What can we do? What will be the cost?
我们可以做什么？所需费用又是多少？
71.And what will be the benefit of that?
能带来什么效益？
72.Likewise in communicable diseases.
同样，在传染病的范畴上，
73.Three of the world’s top experts saying, what can we do?
我们有世界顶尖的三位专家，告诉我们可以做什么，
74.What would be the price?
所需费用如何？
75.What should we do about it, and what will be the outcome?
我们应该怎让做？又有什么果效？
76.And so on.
如此类推。
77.Then we had some of the world’s top economists, eight of the world’s top economists, including three Nobel Laureates, meet in Copenhagen in May 2004.
我们又请来世界最出色的经济学家， 八位世界最佳经济学家， 包括三位诺贝尔奖得主， 在2004年5月云集哥本哈根。
78.We called them the dream team.
我们叫他们做梦幻队，
79.The Cambridge University prefects decided to call them the Real Madrid of economics.
剑桥大学的级长称他们为 经济学的皇家马德里队 —
80.That works very well in Europe, but it doesn’t really work over here.
这名称在欧洲很合适，但在这里似乎就不很行得通。
81.And what they basically did was come out with a prioritized list.
他们做的基本上就是订出一张列明缓急次序的选单。
82.And then you ask, why economists?
你可能要问，为什么是经济学家？
83.And of course, I’m very happy you asked that question — (Laughter) — because that’s a very good question.
而我当然很高兴你提出这个问题，–（笑声）– 因为那是一个十分好的问题。
84.The point is, of course, if you want to know about malaria, you ask a malaria expert.
重点是，如果你想认识疟疾， 你会找个疟疾专家；
85.If you want to know about climate, you ask a climatologist.
如果你想认识气候，你会找个气候学家。
86.But if you want to know which of the two you should deal with first, you can’t ask either of them, because that’s not what they do.
可是如果你想知道二者之间，何者应该优先处理， 你不能问他们任何一方，因为那不是他们的工作，
87.That is what economists do.
那是经济学家的工作，
88.They prioritize.
他们订定优先次序。
89.They make that in some ways disgusting task of saying, which one should we do first, and which one should we do afterwards?
经济学家做的，就是那在某些方面被认为是厌恶性的工作，他们决定哪些项目应优先处理， 那些该稍后进行。
90.So this is the list, and this is the one I’d like to share with you.
这就是我想和大家分享的清单，
91.Of course, you can also see it on the website, and we’ll also talk about it more, I’m sure, as the day goes on.
你当然也可以在我们的网站看到这份清单， 而等一会我们也会再详细说说。
92.They basically came up with a list where they said there were bad projects — basically, projects where if you invest a dollar, you get less than a dollar back.
基本上他们完成了一份选单， 上面包括一些不良项目 – 简单来说，如果你投资一坏钱到这些项目， 你的回报会比一坏钱少；
93.Then there’s fair projects, good projects and very good projects.
也有表现一般的项目，良好项目和优秀项目。
94.And of course, it’s the very good projects we should start doing.
我们应该首先开展的，当然是那些优秀项目。
95.I’m going to go from backwards so that we end up with the best projects.
我会从清单的末尾开始， 把优秀项目留到最后。
96.These were the bad projects.
这些是不良项目。
97.As you might see the bottom of the list was climate change.
可以见到排在清单最末的是气候变化。
98.This offends a lot of people, and that’s probably one of the things where people will say I shouldn’t come back, either.
这冒犯了很多人，那可能就是为什么有些人说 我不应该再来。
99.And I’d like to talk about that, because that’s really curious.
这个我需要解释一下，因为这看来很奇怪。
100.Why is it it came up?
为什么会是这样呢？
101.And I’ll actually also try to get back to this because it’s probably one of the things that we’ll disagree with on the list that you wrote down.
这个我往后还要再谈一下， 因为这可能是我们的清单跟你的清单 其中一个不同的地方。
102.The reason why they came up with saying that Kyoto — or doing something more than Kyoto — is a bad deal is simply because it’s very inefficient.
为什么我们的专家认为执行京都协议， 或者做得比京都协议更多，并不是一个好主意？ 原因很简单， 因为这样做缺乏果效。
103.It’s not saying that global warming is not happening.
这不是说全球暖化没有发生，
104.It’s not saying that it’s not a big problem.
也不是说问题并不严重。
105.But it’s saying that what we can do about it is very little, at a very high cost.
乃是说，我们可以为这个问题做的 并不多，而且所费不菲。
106.What they basically show us, the average of all macroeconomic models, is that Kyoto, if everyone agreed, would cost about 150 billion dollars a year.
这些专家告诉我们，根据所有宏观经济模型平均计算， 如果各国都执行京都协议，每年要花费大概一千五百亿美元。
107.That’s a substantial amount of money.
这笔庞大的数目，
108.That’s two to three times the global development aid that we give the Third World every year.
大概是我们每年援助第三世界发展所费 两至三倍，
109.Yet it would do very little good.
可是回报却很少。
110.All models show it will postpone warming for about six years in 2100.
所有模型都显示， 这只可以把暖化问题推迟大约六年至二一零零年，
111.So the guy in Bangladesh who gets a flood in 2100 can wait until 2106.
也就是说，本来於二一零零年在孟加拉发生的水灾， 可以延至二一零六年。
112.Which is a little good, but not very much good.
这是有一点好处，却不是很大的成效。
113.So the idea here really is to say, well, we’ve spent a lot of money doing a little good.
这个例子的意思是，我们用了很多钱，却只带来一点利益
114.And just to give you a sense of reference, the U.N. actually estimate that for half that amount, for about 75 billion dollars a year,
让我给你一些参考资料， 根据联合国的估计，我们只需一半的价钱， 即每年大概七百五十亿美元，
115.we could solve all major basic problems in the world.
便可以解决世界上所有重大基本问题。
116.We could give clean drinking water, sanitation, basic healthcare and education to every single human being on the planet.
我们可以为地球上每一个人， 提供清洁食水，卫生设施， 基本医疗和教育。
117.So we have to ask ourselves, do we want to spend twice the amount on doing very little good?
所以我们要问自己，是否要付出双倍代价， 来换取些少好处，
118.Or half the amount on doing an amazing amount of good?
还是只用一半的价钱，就取得意想不到那么多的成效？
119.And that is really why it becomes a bad project.
这就是为什么气候变化是一个不良项目。
120.It’s not to say that if we had all the money in the world, we wouldn’t want to do it.
这不是说，如果我们拥有世界上所有的钱，我们不会进行这个项目，
121.But it’s to say, when we don’t, it’s just simply not our first priority.
这乃是说，当我们并不拥有所有的钱，就不应优先处理这个问题。
122.The fair projects — notice I’m not going to comment on all these — but communicable diseases, scale of basic health services — just made it,
那些果效一般的项目 –我且不在此逐项评论 — 好像传染病，基本卫生服务 – 尚可以进行。
123.simply because, yes, scale of basic health services is a great thing.
原因很简单，基本卫生服务的规模庞大，
124.It would do a lot of good, but it’s also very, very costly.
可以带来很大益处，不过也非常昂贵。
125.Again, what it tells us is suddenly we start thinking about both sides of the equation.
如上所言，这一下子告诉我们， 要开始考虑问题的两面。
126.If you look at the good projects, a lot of sanitation and water projects came in.
接着下来我们可以看看果效良好的项目，包括许多卫生和食水项目。
127.Again, sanitation and water is incredibly important, but it also costs a lot of infrastructure.
卫生和食水项目极为重要， 但需要很多基本设施。
128.So I’d like to show you the top four priorities which should be at least the first ones that we deal with when we talk about how we should deal with the problems in the world.
最后让我们一起看看为首的四项优先项目， 它们应该是我们谈及如何处理世界性问题时， 最优先要处理的。
129.The fourth best problem is malaria — dealing with malaria.
第四个要优先处理的问题是疟疾 – 即消除疟疾的威胁。
130.The incidence of malaria is about a couple of [million] people get infected every year.
每年有几百万人感染疟疾，
131.It might even cost up towards a percentage point of GDP every year for affected nations.
对受影响国家来说，每年所需的费用 可能多至国民生产总值百分之一。
132.If we invested about 13 billion dollars over the next four years, we could bring that incidence down to half.
如果我们投放大概一百三十亿美元，在未来四年用来控制疟疾， 就可以把感染的人数减半，
133.We could avoid about 500,000 people dying, but perhaps more importantly, we could avoid about a billion people getting infected every year.
防止大概五十万人死掉。 更重要的，是每年我们可以防止大概十亿人 感染到这个病。
134.We would significantly increase their ability to deal with many of the other problems that they have to deal with.
我们可以显著地提高 他们应付其他很多问题的能力。
135.Of course, in the long run, also to deal with global warming.
当然，长远来说，这也会提高他们应付全球暖化的能力。
136.This third best one was free trade.
第三项要优先处理的问题是自由贸易。
137.Basically, the model showed that if we could get free trade, and especially cut subsidies in the U.S. and Europe, we could basically enliven the global economy
基本上，我们的经济模型告诉我们，如果我们有自由贸易， 尤其如果我们在美国和欧洲取消贸易补贴， 我们可以从根本活化环球经济，
138.to an astounding number of about 2,400 billion dollars a year, half of which would accrue to the Third World.
达至令人惊讶的二万四千亿美元一年， 而其中一半会来自第三世界。
139.Again, the point is to say that we could actually pull two to three hundred million people out of poverty, very radically fast, in about two to five years.
那就是说，我们可以极速地在两至三年间， 把两至三亿人 带离贫困。
140.That would be the third best thing we could do.
那是第三件我们最应做的事。