BillJoy_思考未来【中英文对照】

1.What technology can we really apply to reducing global poverty?
什么技术可以真正帮助我们减少全球贫困？
2.And what I found was quite surprising.
我找到的答案让我颇为吃惊。
3.We started looking at things like death rates in the 20th century, and how they’d been improved, and very simple things turned out.
我们在二十世纪开始关注死亡率这样的事情， 以及如何改善这些指标。找到的答案其实很简单。
4.You’d think maybe antibiotics made more difference than clean water, but it’s actually the opposite.
你也许认为抗生素所做的贡献大于净水， 其实答案恰恰相反。
5.And so very simple things — off-the-shelf technologies that we could easily find on the then-early Web — would clearly make a huge difference to that problem.
所以很简单的事物，那些能很容易在早期的网络上 找到的现成的技术， 就能解决问题。
6.But I also, in looking at more powerful technologies and nanotechnology and genetic engineering and other new emerging kind of digital technologies, became very concerned
与此同时，当我开始关注更加高级的技术， 像纳米技术、基因工程以及其他一些新兴的 数字技术，我开始变得非常担心，
7.about the potential for abuse.
担心这些技术将来会被滥用。
8.If you think about it, in history, a long, long time ago we dealt with the problem of an individual abusing another individual.
想一想历史上，很久很久以前， 我们要解决人类个体之间相互虐待的问题，
9.We came up with something — the Ten Commandments: Thou shalt not kill.
于是摩西十诫应运而生：你不能杀人。
10.That’s a, kind of a one-on-one thing.
那时还是一对一的事情。
11.We organized into cities. We had many people.
然后人们聚合成很多城邦，从此很多人生活在一起。
12.And to keep the many from tyrannizing the one, we came up with concepts like individual liberty.
为了防止很多人欺负一个人， 人们又发明了“个人自由”这一概念，
13.And then, to have to deal with large groups, say, at the nation-state level, and we had to have mutual non-aggression, or through a series of conflicts, we eventually came to
再后来，为了对付更大的社会群体， 比如说国家之间， 人们就必须制定互不侵犯协定， 或者在经历了一系列的冲突之后，最终达成
14.a rough international bargain to largely keep the peace.
一个简要的国际合约来维护基本的和平。
15.But now we have a new situation, really what people call an asymmetric situation, where technology is so powerful that it extends beyond a nation-state.
今天我们又有了新的挑战，人们认为这是个 不对称的形势。技术已经发展得非常强大， 已经超越了国界。
16.It’s not the nation-states that have potential access to mass destruction, but individuals.
大规模杀伤性武器不再只是被控制在 国家的手中，而有可能被个人掌控。
17.And this is a consequence of the fact that these new technologies tend to be digital.
这是新技术数字化的一个直接后果。
18.We saw genome sequences.
我们都见过基因组序列，
19.You can download the gene sequences of pathogens off the Internet if you want to, and clearly someone recently — I saw in a science magazine —
如果你想要知道病原体的基因序列， 你可以从因特网下载到。 而且我从《科学》杂志上看到，最近就有人这么做了。
20.they said, well, the 1918 flu is too dangerous to FedEx around.
嗯——，1918年的流感病毒用联邦快递（FedEx）传播也许太危险了些。
21.If people want to use it in their labs for working on research, just reconstruct it yourself, because, you know, it might break in FedEx.
如果你想用这些基因组在实验室里做研究， 只要自己进行重组就可以了， 因为我们都知道联邦快递可能会毁掉这些基因组。
22.So that this is possible to do this is not deniable.
这也就是说这件事情的可行性已经毋庸置疑了，
23.So individuals in small groups super-empowered by access to these kind of self-replicating technologies, whether it be biological or other, are clearly a danger in our world.
那些手中掌握着此类自我复制技术的人们 就有可能对世界构成威胁，无论是生物技术 还是其他技术。
24.And the danger is that they can cause roughly what’s a pandemic.
危险的是这些技术可能引发大规模的流行疾病，
25.And we really don’t have experience with pandemics, and we’re also not very good as a society at acting to things we don’t have direct and sort of gut-level experience with.
而我们人类在对付流行疾病方面的确没什么经验， 而且对于这些并没有直接和一目了然答案的问题， 我们也不擅长作为一个整体来行动。
26.So it’s not in our nature to pre-act.
也就是说未雨绸缪并不是我们的天性。
27.And in this case, piling on more technology doesn’t solve the problem, because it only super-empowers people more.
这种情况下，发明更多的技术并不能解决问题， 因为这只能让人类能的本领变得越发强大。
28.So the solution has to be, as people like Russell and Einstein and others, imagine in a conversation that existed in a much stronger form, I think, early in the 20th century,
所以解决方案就在于，正像卢梭和爱因斯坦等人 在20世纪初在一种更强形式的对话中 提到的一样，
29.that the solution had to be not just the head but the heart.
解决方案必须不光存在于脑中，而且在心中，
30.You know, public policy and moral progress.
也就是我们通常说的政策和道德的发展进步。
31.The bargain that gives us civilization is a bargain to not use power.
人类文明正是在避免使用过多权力的前提下建立起来的。
32.We get our individual rights by society protecting us from others not doing everything they can do but largely doing only what is legal.
个人权利之所以得到保障，就是因为社会通过法律规定了 什么是合法的行为，从而防止人们为所欲为。
33.And so to limit the danger of these new things, we have to limit, ultimately, the ability of individuals to have access, essentially, to pandemic power.
因此要想最终控制这些新事物带来的潜在危险，我们就必须 将有条件接触那些有大规模破坏能力的 群体的能力控制在一定的限度之内。
34.We also have to have sensible defense, because no limitation is going to prevent a crazy person from doing something.
我们也必须同时具有一定的防卫能力，因为没有什么限制 是能够真正阻止一个失去理智的人做任何疯狂的事情的。
35.And you know, and the troubling thing is that it’s much easier to do something bad than to defend against all possible bad things, so the offensive uses really have an asymmetric advantage.
而且大家也知道，最头疼的事情是 干坏事情要比对所有坏事进行防御 要容易得多。 因此进行攻击（相对防御而言）的确是有一些“非对称”优势的。
36.So these are the kind of thoughts I was thinking in 1999 and 2000, and my friends told me I was getting really depressed, and they were really worried about me.
以上这些就是我在1999和2000年所想到的。 我的朋友告诉我说我那时候变得十分忧郁， 他们都很替我担心。
37.And then I signed a book contract to write more gloomy thoughts about this and moved into a hotel room in New York with one room full of books on the Plague,
在那之后我又签了一份约稿，要把这些让人忧郁的想法结集出版， 为此我住进了纽约的一家酒店， 酒店的房间里堆满了关于那些想法的书籍，
38.and you know, nuclear bombs exploding in New York where I would be within the circle, and so on.
还有大家都知道的在纽约发生的核炸弹爆炸， 就发生在离我不远的地方，诸如此类。
39.And then I was there on September 11th, and I stood in the streets with everyone.
然后就是9.11，当时我就在那里。 我跟所有人一样站在街头。
40.And it was quite an experience to be there.
那可是个相当难忘的经历。
41.I got up the next morning and walked out of the city, and all the sanitation trucks were parked on Houston Street and ready to go down and start taking the rubble away.
我第二天早晨起来后走在城市当中， 所有的环卫车辆集结在休斯顿大街， 准备前往出事地点清理那些爆炸垃圾，
42.And I walked down the middle, up to the train station, and everything below 14th Street was closed.
我一路走到地铁车站， 14街以下所有的街头店铺都关闭了。
43.It was quite a compelling experience, but not really, I suppose, a surprise to someone who’d had his room full of the books.
这确实是一次不小的经历，但我想对于我这个 拥有一屋子这类书籍的人来说也许并不应该感到那么意外。
44.It was always a surprise that it happened then and there, but it wasn’t a surprise that it happened at all.
大家会对偶发事件会感到惊讶 但这件事情迟早会发生，这本身并不是个意外。
45.And everyone then started writing about this.
在那之后所有人都开始谈论这件事情，
46.Thousands of people started writing about this.
成千上万的人开始动笔写这件事情。
47.And I eventually abandoned the book, and then Chris called me to talk at the conference. I really don’t talk about this any more because, you know, there’s enough frustrating and depressing things going on.
我最终放弃了那本书的写作，接着克里斯给我打电话 让我在这个大会上发言。我实在是不想再讨论这件事情， 因为我们都知道，周围已经有足够多让我们沮丧和忧郁的事情了。
48.But I agreed to come and say a few things about this.
但我还是答应来这里讲几件与此相关的事情。
49.And I would say that we can’t give up the rule of law to fight an asymmetric threat, which is what we seem to be doing because of the present, the people that are in power,
我要说：我们不能放弃 对抗这种不对称威胁的原则， 我们也正在做着， 因为当前的状况， 目前的当权者
50.because that’s to give up the thing that makes civilization.
因为他们在放弃人类文明的保障。
51.And we can’t fight the threat in the kind of stupid way we’re doing, because a million-dollar act causes a billion dollars of damage, causes a trillion dollar response
我们也不能使用愚蠢的方法来赢得这场战争， 因为一个百万美元的提案 可能引发一亿美元的损失，继而引发一万亿美元的响应救援，
52.which is largely ineffective and arguably, probably almost certainly, has made the problem worse.
而这些救援大部分是低效而有争议的，基本上可以肯定地说， 会让原有的问题雪上加霜。
53.So we can’t fight the thing with a million-to-one cost, one-to-a-million benefit ratio.
也就是说，我们不能用1百万比1的付出和 1比1百万的收益来解决问题。
54.So after giving up on the book — and I had the great honor to be able to join Kleiner Perkins about a year ago, and to work through venture capital on the innovative side,
在我放弃了写那本书的计划之后，我很荣幸 在大约一年前开始跟Kleiner Perkins一起 致力于一些创新发明的风险投资，
55.and to try to find some innovations that could address what I saw as some of these big problems.
希望能找到一些创新项目来帮助解决 一些在我看来是大问题的问题。
56.Things where, you know, a factor of ten difference can make a factor of a thousand difference in the outcome.
对于这些问题，我们都知道的，方法上哪怕只有十分的差异 都可能导致在结果上千分的差异。
57.I’ve been amazed in the last year at the incredible quality and excitement of the innovations that have come across my desk.
过去一年里我不断地被送到我桌面上来的 创新成果的质量和让人兴奋的程度感到惊讶，
58.It’s overwhelming at times. I’m very thankful for Google and Wikipedia so I can understand at least a little of what people are talking about
有时候甚至让我彻底折服。感谢Google和Wikipedia, 至少能帮助我理解那些来找我的
59.who come through the doors.
人们所说的是什么。
60.But I wanted to share with you three areas that I’m particularly excited about and that relate to the problems that I was talking about in the Wired article.
但我今天想要分享让我最为兴奋的 三个领域，这三个领域跟我给Wired写的文章里 提到的事情是相关的。
61.The first is this whole area of education, and it really relates to what Nicholas was talking about with a hundred dollar computer.
第一个领域是教育。 这个领域跟Nicholas所提到的”百元电脑“密切相关。
62.And that is to say that there’s a lot of legs left in Moore’s Law.
也就是说摩尔定律其实还有很大的发展空间
63.The most advanced transistors today are at 65 nanometers, and we’ve seen, and I’ve had the pleasure to invest in, companies that give me great confidence that we’ll extend Moore’s Law
如今最先进的晶体管只有65纳米， 我们也看到，事实上我甚至有幸投资这样的一些公司， 这些公司让我确信我们可以将摩尔定律加以扩展，
64.all the way down to roughly the ten nanometer scale.
一直扩展到大约10纳米左右的范围。
65.Another factor of, say, six in dimensional reduction, which should give us about another factor of 100 in raw improvement in what the chips can do. And so, to put that in practical terms,
尺寸每缩小6倍， 就能使芯片的效率提高大约100倍。 说的实际一些：
66.if something costs about 1,000 dollars today, say, the best personal computer you can buy, that might be its cost, I think we can have that in 2020 for 10 dollars. Okay?
今天成本是一千元的东西， 比如说现在能买到的最好的个人电脑大约就是这个价钱， 那么到了2020年它的成本就变成了10块钱，对吧？
67.Now, just imagine what that hundred dollar computer will be in 2020 as a tool for education.
那么设想一下到那个时候用一百元的电脑 作为教育工具将会是什么样的情形。
68.I think the challenge for us is — I’m very certain that that will happen, the challenge is, will we develop the kind of educational tools and things with the net
我想对我们来说真正的挑战， 我相当肯定这是会发生的，真正的挑战就是， 我们能否开发出合适的教育工具，在互联网的帮助下，
69.to let us take advantage of that device?
能让我们充分发挥硬件的效率？
70.I’d argue today that we have incredibly powerful computers, but we don’t have very good software for them.
我个人认为：我们有强大得让人难以置信的计算机硬件， 但我们还没有很好的软件来充分利用这些计算机。
71.And it’s only in retrospect, after the better software comes along, and you take it and you run it on a ten-year-old machine, you say,
每次都是当新的软件出来以后， 我们把它装在十年前的机器上，然后你惊讶的发现
72.God, the machine was that fast?
天啊，那台机器原来有那么快啊？
73.I remember when they took the Apple Mac interface and they put it back on the Apple II.
我记得当他们把Apple Mac的界面 重新装到Apple II上去，
74.The Apple II was perfectly capable of running that kind of interface, we just didn’t know how to do it at the time.
Apple II 能够完全正常的运行那样的界面， 我们当时只是不知道该怎么去做。
75.So given that we know and should believe — because Moore’s Law’s been, like, a constant, I mean, it’s just been very predictable progress
所以我们知道，并且应该相信， 由于摩尔定律就像是个常数， 也就是说受它影响，技术的进步在过去的40年左右的时间里
76.over the last 40 years or whatever.
是相当有预知性的。
77.We can know what the computers are going to be like in 2020.
我们可以预测出2020年的计算机会是什么样子。
78.It’s great that we have initiatives to say, let’s go create the education and educate people in the world, because that’s a great force for peace.
如果我们能够争取主动， 致力于教育发展，努力去教育周围的人们， 这将会是一件大好事，因为教育是制造和平的强有力工具。
79.And we can give everyone in the world a hundred-dollar computer or a 10 dollar computer in the next 15 years.
而且我们能够在15年后给每个人一台 一百块钱或者10块钱的电脑。
80.The second area that I’m focusing on is the environmental problem, because that’s clearly going to put a lot of pressure on this world.
第二个领域是对环境问题的关注， 因为很明显这个问题将给这个世界施加很多压力。
81.We’ll hear a lot more about that from Al Gore very shortly.
我们马上将会听到Al Gore来谈论这个问题。
82.The thing that we see as the kind of Moore’s Law trend that’s driving improvement in our ability to address the environmental problem is new materials.
在这个领域能遵循摩尔定律来 提高我们解决环境问题的能力 的技术则是新兴材料的应用。
83.We have a challenge, because the urban population is growing in this century from two billion to six billion in a very short amount of time. People are moving to the cities.
然而我们有个严峻的挑战，因为在本世纪 短短的一段时间内，城市人口已经从 20亿增加到了60亿。人们在往城市迁徙。
84.They all need clean water, they need energy, they need transportation, and we want them to develop in a green way.
城市需要干净的水源，需要能量，需要便利的交通， 而我们希望这些都能在”绿色“的基础上发展起来。
85.We’re reasonably efficient in the industrial sectors.
我们在工业界的环保做的还是相对有效的，
86.We’ve made improvements in energy and resource efficiency, but the consumer sector, especially in America, is very inefficient.
在能源和资源的有效利用方面取得了不少进步， 然而在消费领域，尤其是在美国，能源利用效率很低。
87.But these new materials bring such incredible innovations that there’s a strong basis for hope that these things will be so profitable that they can be brought to the market.
但这些新材料的出现带来了令人难以置信的革新， 从而让我们很有理由相信这些新生事物将会 带来很大的收益，从而很快被市场化。
88.And I want to give you a specific example of a new material that was discovered 15 years ago.
我想跟各位分享一个十五年前发现的 新物质的具体例子。
89.If we take carbon nanotubes, you know, Iijima discovered them in 1991, they just have incredible properties.
大家都知道碳纳米管是lijima在1991年发现的。 这种材料有着优秀的特性，
90.And these are the kinds of things we’re going to discover as we start to engineer at the nano scale.
这些特性是技术发展到 纳米级的时候才能发现的。
91.Their strength: they’re almost the strongest material, tensile strength material known.
这些材料的优势是：它们几乎是最强壮的, 在已知的伸张力材料中最强的。
92.They’re very, very stiff. They stretch very, very little.
它们非常僵硬，拉伸程度非常非常小。
93.In two dimensions, if you make, like, a fabric out of them, they’re 30 times stronger than Kevlar.
在二维情况下，比如说用它们来做布料， 它们要比纤维B坚固30倍。
94.And if you make a three-dimensional structure, like a buckyball, they have all sorts of incredible properties.
如果你要用它们来做三维物体，比如说巴基球， 它们则拥有各种令人难以置信的优秀特性。
95.If you shoot a particle at them and knock a hole in them, they repair themselves; they go zip and they repair the hole in femtoseconds, which is not — is really quick.
如果你用一个颗粒物质在它们表面上射一个洞， 它们会进行自我修复。它们会在几个飞秒之内 完成修复，即便不是飞秒，那速度也够快的
96.(Laughter) If you shine a light on them, they produce electricity.
（笑声） 如果你用光照射它们，它们则会产生电流。
97.In fact, if you flash them with a camera they catch on fire.
事实上，如果你用照相机的闪光灯照，它们会起火。
98.If you put electricity on them, they emit light.
如果你给它们通电，它们会发光。
99.If you run current through them, you can run 1,000 times more current through one of these than through a piece of metal.
如果你让它们导电，它们可以携带的电流 是一块金属所携带电流的1000倍。
100.You can make both p- and n-type semiconductors, which means you can make transistors out of them.
你可以用它们来做p型或n型半导体， 也就是说你可以用它们来制造晶体管。
101.They conduct heat along their length but not across — well, there is no width, but not in the other direction if you stack them up; that’s a property of carbon fiber also.
它们在长度方向上导热，而不是纵向 事实上它们并没有宽度，如果你把它们堆起来 它们不会朝另一个方向导热。这也是碳纤维的一个特性。
102.If you put particles in them, and they go shooting out the tip — they’re like miniature linear accelerators or electron guns.
如果你把颗粒物质放到它们里面，颗粒们就会从一端射出， 就像一个小型的线性加速器或者电子枪。
103.The inside of the nanotubes is so small — the smallest ones are 0.7 nanometers — that it’s basically a quantum world.
纳米管的内部是非常小的， 最小的也就0.7纳米， 这基本上就是个量子世界。
104.It’s a strange place inside a nanotube.
纳米管内部的确是个奇怪的地方。