NickBostrom_我们的大问题【中英文对照】

1.I want to talk today about — I’ve been asked to take a long view, and I’m going to tell you what I think are the three biggest problems for humanity
今天我所要讲的是- 他们让我谈谈长远的观点-我要告诉你们 我认为，从长远来看，
2.from this long point of view.
人类面临着三大问题。
3.Some of these have already been touched upon by other speakers, which is encouraging.
其中有些问题已经被其他讲演者提到了， 这是很鼓舞人心的。
4.It seems that there’s not just one person who thinks that these problems are important.
看起来远不止一个人 认为这些问题意义重大。
5.The first is — death is a big problem.
第一——死亡是一个重大的问题。
6.If you look at the statistics, the odds are not very favorable to us.
如果你看看统计数据， 形式对我们来说并不乐观。
7.So far, most people who have lived, have also died.
到目前为止，大部分曾经活过的人，都已经死了。
8.Roughly 90 percent of everybody who has been alive has died by now.
大致来说，所有人类中百分之九十的人目前已经死亡了.
9.So the annual death rate adds up to 150,000 — sorry, the daily death rate — 150,000 people per day, which is a huge number by any standard.
因此，年死亡率总计就是15万—— 对不起，日死亡率——每天15万人， 以任何标准看，这个数字都是巨大的。
10.The annual death rate, then, becomes 56 million.
那么，年死亡率就变成了5千6百万人。
11.If we just look at the single, biggest cause of death — aging — it accounts for roughly two-thirds of all human people who die.
如果我们只着眼于死亡的最大的单一因素——衰老—— 大约有三分之二的人因此而死。
12.That adds up to an annual death toll of greater than the population of Canada.
这些每年因衰老而死亡的人数 比加拿大的人口还要多。
13.Sometimes, we don’t see a problem because either it’s too familiar, or it’s too big.
有时，我们无视于问题之存在， 因为要么这个问题太熟悉，要么这个问题太大了。
14.Can’t see it because it’s too big.
因为问题太大了，所以我们看不见。
15.I think death might be both too familiar and too big for most people to see it as a problem.
我认为，死亡对我们来说，既过于熟悉也过于巨大 因此大多数人都不会把它当做一个问题来看待。
16.Once you think about it, you see this is not statistical points.
一旦你想一下，你就会发现这并不是统计数字而已。
17.These are — let’s see, how far have I talked?
这些是——让我看看，我讲了有多久了？
18.I’ve talked for three minutes.
我已经讲了三分钟。
19.So that would be, roughly, 324 people have died since I’ve begun speaking.
那么，从我开始讲话到现在，有大概324个人已经去世了。
20.People like — it’s roughly the population in this room has just died.
这个人数就像——大概有这个房间里的那么多人刚才去世了。
21.Now, the human cost of that is obvious.
死亡给人类带来的损失是很明显的。
22.Once you start to think about it — the suffering, the loss — it’s also, economically, enormously wasteful.
如果你开始细想——死亡带来的痛苦、损失 从经济上来说，这也是一种巨大的浪费。
23.I just look at the information, and knowledge, and experience that is lost due to natural causes of death in general, and aging, in particular.
光从信息、知识和经验来看， 一般而言，它们都因人的自然死亡而消失了， 尤其是因衰老而造成的死亡。
24.Suppose we approximated one person with one book?
假设我们把一个人比作一本书，
25.Now, of course, this is an under-estimation.
当然，这对人来说是低估的。
26.A person’s lifetime of learning and experience is a lot more than you could put into a single book.
一个人一生的学识和经验 远不能为一本书所容纳。
27.But let’s suppose we did this.
但让我们这么假设吧。
28.52 million people die of natural causes each year corresponds, then, to 52 million volumes destroyed.
每年有五千两百万人因自然原因而死亡 那么，相应的，五千两百万册书也毁灭了。
29.Library of Congress holds 18 million volumes.
国会图书馆有一千八百万册藏书。
30.We are upset about the burning of the Library of Alexandria.
亚历山大图书馆被烧毁让我们深感惋惜。
31.It’s one of the great cultural tragedies that we remember, even today.
这是一大文化悲剧 我们直到今天还记忆犹新。
32.But this is the equivalent of three Libraries of Congress — burnt down, forever lost — each year.
但死亡造成的损失，相当于每年有三座国会图书馆的藏书 灰飞烟灭，永远消亡。
33.So that’s the first big problem.
因此，这是第一个重大问题。
34.And I wish Godspeed to Aubrey de Grey, and other people like him, to try to do something about this as soon as possible.
我要祝奥布里·德·格雷（译者：研究永生的学者） 和他的同行们成功， 祝他们在这个问题上尽早有所进展。
35.Existential risk — the second big problem.
存在风险——第二个重大问题。
36.Existential risk is a threat to human survival, or to the long-term potential of our species.
存在风险是对人类生存，或对整个人类种群的长远潜能的一种威胁。
37.Now, why do I say that this is a big problem?
为什么我会认为这是一个重大问题？
38.Well, let’s first look at the probability — and this is very difficult to estimate — but there have been only four studies on this in recent years,
让我们来看看可能性—— 这非常难估量—— 但近年来，这个领域只出现了四篇研究文章。
39.which is surprising.
这很让人吃惊。
40.You would think that it would be of some interest to try to find out more about this given that the stakes are so big, but it’s a very neglected area.
你可能会认为，既然厉害关系如此巨大， 那么在这个领域做研究一定是有意义的。 然而，这是一个被人们忽视的领域。
41.But there have been four studies — one by John Lesley, wrote a book on this.
但是，已经有了四篇研究—— 其中一篇由约翰·雷斯利所著，为这个问题写了一本书。
42.He estimated a probability that we will fail to survive the current century — 50 percent.
据他估计，有50%的可能性 我们会在这个世纪灭亡。
43.Similarly, the Astronomer Royal, whom we heard speak yesterday, also has a 50 percent probability estimate.
类似的，皇家天文学家（名号）——我们昨天听过他的演讲—— 的估算结果也是50%。
44.Another author doesn’t give any numerical estimate, but says the probability is significant that it will fail.
另外一个作者并没有给出任何数据估算， 但他指出，人类灭亡的可能性非常高。
45.I wrote a long paper on this.
我就这个问题写了一篇长篇论文
46.I said assigning a less than 20 percent probability would be a mistake in light of the current evidence we have.
我在文章里指出，根据现有的证据， 任何低于20%的可能性估算都应该是错误的。
47.Now, the exact figures here, we should take with a big grain of salt, but there seems to be a consensus that the risk is substantial.
对于这里的具体数字， 我们不应该全盘相信， 但人们似乎对此达成共识，风险的确不小。
48.Everybody who has looked at this and studied it, agrees.
每个看过并研究过这方面的人，都会同意。
49.Now, if we think about what just reducing the probability of human extinction by just one percentage point — not very much — so that’s equivalent to 60 million lives saved,
那么，如果我们考虑 将人类灭绝的可能性几率只减少一个百分点—— 并不是很多——那就相当于拯救了六千万的生命，
50.if we just count the currently living people, the current generation.
而这只是计算现存的人类，当代人口。
51.Now one percent of six billion people is equivalent to 60 million.
那么六十亿人的百分之一相当于六千万。
52.So that’s a large number.
这是一个很大的数字。
53.If we were to take into account future generations that will never come into existence if we blow ourselves up, then the figure becomes astronomical.
如果我们把未来的人口也算进来 如果我们把自己毁灭了，未来人口也永不会存在， 那么这数字就变成天文数字了。
54.If we could, now, eventually, colonize a chunk of the universe — the Virgo supercluster — maybe it will take us 100 million years to get there,
如果我们最终可以开拓宇宙的一角为生存地—— 比如室女座超星系团—— 可能我们需要一亿年才能到达那儿，
55.but if we go extinct we never will.
但如果我们灭亡了，我们永远也到不了
56.Then, even a one percentage point reduction in the extinction risk could be equivalent to this astronomical number — 10 to the power of 32.
那么，即使是减少百分之一 的灭绝风险，那将等同于 这个极为庞大的数字——10的32次方。
57.So if you take into account future generations as much as our own, every other moral imperative of philanthropic cost just becomes irrelevant.
那么，如果你像关心我们自己一样关心我们的后代， 所有其他基于道义责任的慈善都变得无关紧要。
58.The only thing you should focus on would be to reduce existential risk because even the tiniest decrease in existential risk would just overwhelm any other benefit you could hope to achieve.
你所应该关注的唯一事情 就是减少生存风险 因为即使只减少极少的一点生存风险， 其带来的好处也可以覆盖其它任何你希望获得的利益。
59.And even if you just look at the current people, and ignore the potential that would be lost if we went extinct, it would still have a high priority.
另外，如果你仅仅关注现在的人类， 而忽略那些一旦我们灭绝后可能失去的潜能， 减少存在风险也仍旧值得优先考虑。
60.Now, let me spend the rest of my time on the third big problem, because it’s more subtle and perhaps difficult to grasp.
现在，让我把余下的时间花在对第三个重大问题的探讨上。 因为这个问题更加微妙，也可能难以把握。
61.Think about some time in your life — some people might never have experienced — but some people, there are just those moments that you have experienced
试着回忆一下你生命中的某些时刻—— 有些人可能从未体会过——但有些人 在他们生命的某些时刻
62.where life was fantastic.
体会到生命的美妙。
63.It might have been at the moment of some great, creative inspiration you might have had when you just entered this flow stage.
它可能是当你进入心流体验时 所经历的很棒的，产生创造性灵感的时候。
64.Or when you understood something you had never done before.
或者是当你弄懂了某件以往从未涉足的事情的时刻。
65.Or perhaps in the ecstasy of romantic love.
或者是浪漫爱情中那销魂迷醉的时刻。
66.Or an aesthetic experience — a sunset or a great piece of art.
或者是一种对美感的欣赏——如一次落日，或一幅名画。
67.Every once in a while we have these moments, and we realize just how good life can be when it’s at its best.
时不时的，我们便会经历这样的时刻， 我们意识到，生命最美好的时刻是多么令人陶醉。
68.And you wonder why can’t it be like that all the time?
然后你就想，为什么生活不能总是那么美好呢?
69.You just want to cling on to this.
你就是想抓住此刻不放。
70.And then, of course, it drifts back into ordinary life and the memory fades.
然后呢，当然，生活又回到了常态，美好记忆悄然消退。
71.And it’s really difficult to recall, in a normal frame of mind, just how good life can be at its best.
对我们来说，以一颗平常之心是非常难以回想 生活在最精彩的时候是多么的美好，
72.Or how bad it can be at its worst.
或在最差劲的时候是多么的糟糕。
73.The third big problem is that life isn’t usually as wonderful as it could be.
第三个重大问题是，生命通常达不到 它可能达到的美妙状态。
74.I think that’s a big, big problem.
我想这是一个非常，非常大的问题。
75.It’s easy to say what we don’t want.
我们很容易指出出我们不喜欢的东西。
76.Here are a number of things that we don’t want — illness, involuntary death, unnecessary suffering, cruelty, stunted growth, memory loss, ignorance, absence of creativity.
以下都是我们避之而不及的东西—— 疾病、非自愿死亡、不必要的痛苦、残酷、 发育停滞、健忘症、无知，以及缺乏创造力。
77.Suppose we fixed these things — we did something about all of these.
假设我们解决了这些问题——我们对所有这些都采取些措施。
78.We were very successful.
我们对此非常成功。
79.We got rid of all of these things.
我们摆脱了所有这些难题。
80.We might end up with something like this.
我们可能会变成这样。
81.Which is — I mean, it’s a heck of a lot better than that. I mean, but is this really the best if — we can dream of?
我的意思是，这将比原来的境况要好一百倍， 但是，这真的是我们能想到的最好结果吗？
82.Is this the best we can do?
这真的是我们所能做的最好程度吗？
83.Or is it possible to find something a little bit more inspiring to work towards?
还是有可能找到一些更加鼓舞人心的目标来为之奋斗？
84.And if we think about this, I think it’s very clear that there are ways in which we could change things, not just by eliminating negatives,
如果我们这样想， 我认为，有一点非常明确，那就是 如果想改变现状，除了消除负面因素，
85.but adding positives.
还可以增加积极因素。
86.On my wish list, at least, would be — much longer, healthier lives, greater subjective well-being, enhanced cognitive capacities, more knowledge and understanding,
至少在我的愿望清单上会有—— 更长久、更健康的幸福，更美满的康乐安宁， 更强的认知能力，更多的知识和领悟力，
87.unlimited opportunity for personal growth beyond our current biological limits, better relationships, an unbounded potential for spiritual, moral
超越目前人类生物极限的无限的个人成长机会， 更好的人际关系， 更宽广的精神，道德
88.and intellectual development.
以及才智方面的发展空间。
89.If we want to achieve this what, in the world, would have to change?
如果我们想达到这些目标，世界应如何改变？
90.And this is the answer — we would have to change.
答案是——该改变的是我们。
91.Not just the world around us, but we, ourselves.
不仅仅改变我们周围的世界，更应该改变我们自己。
92.Not just the way we think about the world, but the way we are — our very biology.
不仅仅改变我们看待世界的方式，还有我们自身存在的方式——我们自身的生物特性。
93.Human nature would have to change.
人类本质必须要改变。
94.Now, when we think about changing human nature, the first thing that comes to mind are these human modification technologies — growth hormone therapy, cosmetic surgery,
那么，当我们考虑改变人类本质时， 首先想到的 便是那些人类改造技术—— 荷尔蒙生长疗法，整容手术，
95.stimulants like Ritalin, Adderall, anti-depressants, anabolic steroids, artificial hearts.
如利他林，安非他命缓释剂之类的兴奋剂，抗抑郁剂， 合成代谢类固醇，人造心脏。
96.It’s a pretty pathetic list.
这是一张可悲的清单。
97.They do great things for a few people who suffer from some specific condition.
这些技术极大地帮助了一部分人， 这些人患有某些特定的病症。
98.But for most people, they don’t really transform what it is to be human.
但对与大多数人来说，它们并不能真正改变 人的本质。
99.And they also all seem a little bit — most people have this instinct that, well, sure, there needs to be anti-depressants for the really depressed people.
并且，它们看起来也有点—— 大多数人都会本能地认为， 虽然抗抑郁剂对严重抑郁的人来说确实是必须的，
100.But there’s a kind of queasiness that these are unnatural in some way.
但这里面总有一点让人不舒服的成分， 因为在某种程度上说，这毕竟是很不自然的。
101.It’s worth recalling that there are a lot of other modification technologies and enhancement technologies that we use.
值得一提的是，有许多其他的 改造技术和改善技术供我们使用。
102.We have skin enhancements, clothing.
我们有改善皮肤的产品，服装。
103.As far as I can see, all of you are users of this enhancement technology in this room, so that’s a great thing.
据我的观察，你们所有人都是 这改善技术的使用者，所以这是个好东西。
104.Mood modifiers have been used from time immemorial — caffeine, alcohol, nicotine, immune system enhancement, vision enhancement, anesthetics.
自古以来，情绪改善剂就一直为人们所使用—— 咖啡因、酒精、尼古丁、免疫系统增强剂、 视力增强品、麻醉剂。
105.We take that very much for granted, but just think about how great progress that is — like, having an operation before anesthetics was not fun.
我们通常认为这些是理所当然的，没什么稀奇， 但想想看这是多么伟大的进步—— 比如，不实施麻醉而进行手术可不是好玩的。
106.Contraceptives, cosmetics and brain reprogramming techniques — that sounds ominous.
避孕药、美容用品和大脑重新编程技术—— 听起来并不像什么好事。
107.But the distinction between what is a technology — a gadget would be the archetype — and other ways of changing and rewriting human nature is quite subtle.
但技术——典型的例子就是小装置， 以及其他改变和重塑人类本质的方法， 这两者的差别很微妙。
108.So if you think about what it means to learn arithmetic or to learn to read, you’re actually, literally rewriting your own brain.
因此，如果你思考学习算术和阅读意义何在， 那实际上你就是在重写你自己的大脑。